WEST LAFAYETTE, IN –
A dramatic rise in the number of satellites on orbit is increasing the amount of space debris, posing a critical threat to the capabilities of America’s national space systems, Maj. Gen. Chris Povak, deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office, said Monday.
“The future gets more complex, not less. More satellites, more debris, more competition,” he said. “Managing these challenges simultaneously continues to be priority number one for this community, to ensure that we continue to fulfill our mission to the American people."
Povak warned of the risks of space debris during his keynote address to the Space Policy, Science, and Technology Symposium hosted by the Purdue University Policy Research Institute. With space becoming increasingly congested over the past two decades, Povak noted there are hundreds of thousands of objects on orbit – including many that are less than 10 centimeters in diameter and too small to track reliably – that could damage or even destroy a satellite.
According to the U.S. Space Force, more than 80 nations operate satellites in space – a number that has doubled in the past 20 years, enabled by access to advanced technologies, more efficient commercial production methods, and dramatically lower launch costs. The number of satellites on orbit has grown tenfold over the past decade – from about 1,400 satellites on orbit in 2016 to more than 14,000 today. Tens of thousands of satellites are expected to be on-orbit in the coming years.
Povak noted that more activity means more debris. The U.S. Space Force’s Combat Forces Command reports there are currently about 48,000 trackable objects, meaning debris that is 10 centimeters or larger in low-earth orbit and one meter or larger in geostationary orbit, where some of our nation’s most strategically significant spacecraft reside. That’s a 107-percent increase since 2016.
Complicating the challenge is the increase in “debris-creating events.” For example, in 2007 a Chinese anti-satellite test generated more than 3,000 pieces of trackable debris; a 2021 Russian anti-satellite test produced 1,500 pieces of trackable debris.
Given the magnitude of the problem, detecting and avoiding space debris is a critical focus area for the NRO, Povak said: “Our commitment to responsible space operations is fundamental to our mission assurance and our role as stewards of the space environment.”
To protect its assets, the NRO is leading the global space community in orbital debris mitigation and collision avoidance practices. For example, Povak said the NRO works with commercial partners to harden satellite construction, enhance autonomy and maneuverability, and innovate end-of-life processes for spacecraft. The NRO also takes part in national and international dialogues on space sustainability and complies with orbital debris mitigation standards set by the Department of War, National Security Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and NASA – ensuring safety for every system from launch to operations to its ultimate disposal.
The NRO is also applying its decades-long legacy of innovation to strengthening the nation’s space-domain awareness and debris detection. It partnered with the Space Force to develop SILENTBARKER – multiple space vehicles in geostationary orbit that offer a “neighborhood watch” capability. It is also developing a quantum magnetometer sensor testbed to support space-debris detection and precision navigation – enabling assets to assess risks and avoid collisions with space debris.
“While the challenge of a congested space isn't going away anytime soon,” Povak said, “There are steps that spacefaring nations and organizations can do today to help mitigate the growing threat and domain, even as this community works to develop even more effective solutions to the future.”